2004 to 2006 was the best time for poker. A large percent of the US population was watching poker on TV, starting their own home games, and depositing money in online poker. However, it wasn't until 2006 and 2007 that people started fully comprehending the money that can be made playing seriously online. People started to take advantage of the information on the internet more efficiently. This was all happening as the poker fad (yes, poker was a fad from 2004-06, and anyone who doesn't believe that is completely delusional) had already begun to cool off. Obviously something has got to give, and it's giving. There are too many good poker players now, and the shrinking poker economy is certainly not big enough to sustain them all.
It is depressing to see that nosebleed NL games (100/200 NL and higher) are basically completely dead. 25/50 NL games run in small quantity. Nowadays, an awesome 25/50 NL game is where one mediocre player is sitting. The recent change we've seen is that 10/20 NL games are even thinning out. There is often only one or two 10/20 NL games running on Full Tilt, even during peak hours! Yes, the NL heads-up games at my stakes are very good... but the implications of what is happening at higher stakes is frightening. With the speed at which online poker happens, Darwinism is in hyper-drive. It is almost guaranteed that the poker economy (unlike the full US economy) is not in a temporary recession, and is not going to make a rebound. It is, inevitably, only going to get worse.
I know this all sounds pessimistic, and I admit it is probably a negative spin on the poker economy. However that doesn't mean it's wrong.
One thing I'm going to do while in Vegas is try to actually grind live poker. I don't mean it is going to take up all my time, but just that I'll try to have a week or more where I play many long sessions. I want to see how I fare mentally. If I want to play poker professionally for a long time, live poker is a more guaranteed thing than online poker is. I'm not saying I'll ever be strictly a live poker grinder. However, the possibility of moving closer to a major live poker area (likely Atlantic City) so live poker can compliment my online play could be a very real possibility.
8 years ago
4 comments:
Extremely pessimistic, especially using words like delusional and guaranteed, cmon dude, nobody, you included has any idea of whats going to happen in the future of online poker, just like nobody knows the state of stock markets in years to come.
I agree with jethro.
Think about what would happen if the UIGEA were to be changed.
Another thing that you didn't consider is the fact that poker is still gaining in popularity in Europe and that there is a lot of action on Ongame, iPoker and Party Poker.
Sure the nosebleed stakes have dried up a bit, but I don't really think it is too relevant for us. Just consider the amount of people that are willing and can afford to play those stakes. Basically it just consists of High Stakes regs some Live Pros and the occasional rich business man.
There was actually a thread in HSNL about ADZ being mean to high stakes fish to the degree where gee actually decided to take coaching.
I agree to a point. The games are being played by more highly skilled trianed players, making it much harder for guys to move up at quick rates and kill the huge games. But at 5/10 and lower I just don't see it happening. The good players are getting better, but the steady flow of new fish seems to always be there.
If you are looking to be the next CTS, the soft games just aren't there like they were for him, but if you're looking to make a nice 6 figure income, I don't see that every drying up in our games.
That said, I like the idea on the live play. I play quite a bit more live than most online players, and agree with your points there.
obviously there is truth to what u say but i agree with a cppl of these guys taht you are probably being too of a pessimistic, yeah there is and will be more "good players" but There is always going to be plenty of nits and rakeback heros to beatup on lets face it ppl are inherently lazy and if u wanna be ahead of the curve u definately can be. Oh and yeah WSOP europe just recently aired for the first time ithink? if it hasnt it will soon so hopefully it really catches on in Europe and i have heard things about Russia also. Also China/Japan FTW!
-WOW UR BAD
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